Submission

The Democratic House and Senate have knuckled under. The omnibus spending bill that the President wanted has passed the Senate. The House is expected to ratify.

Spineless. Utterly impotent. Colossal, monumental failure. The Democratic takeover in Congress has been astonishingly weak. Time and time again Pelosi has failed to deliver on the promises she’s made as speaker. Time and time again she’s suffered embarrassing defeats. It’s really quite a spectacle to watch the majority party whine and capitulate repeatedly to the minority party.

According to the Los Angeles Times, “The four senators seeking the Democratic presidential nomination — Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Barack Obama of Illinois — missed the debate [on the spending bill].” So they want us out of Iraq, but they can’t be bothered to actually show up and debate the issue. Why? Because then they’d be on record.

For the record, I’m against a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and I do not agree with the leading Democratic voices on foreign policy. But at least I could respect an honest, principled difference of opinion. But the fact that they couldn’t stand their ground speaks volumes about their commitment to principles.

Mitt Romney’s Crisis of Conviction

So Mitt Romney gave his “Faith in America” religion speech. It was a good speech as speeches go. It was serious and fine and he said all the things he thought he needed to say. There were a few disappointments though. I was really hoping we’d get to see his special underwear, but alas, he promised not to air his religious laundry in public.

There are some who would have a presidential candidate describe and explain his church’s distinctive doctrines. To do so would enable the very religious test the founders prohibited in the Constitution. No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith. For if he becomes President he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths.

His message, essentially, is: Don’t ask him about his religion, and he won’t bore us with the details. That’s all fine and dandy. He can believe that the Garden of Eden was in Missouri, that Jesus appeared to a bunch of Native Americans, and that Israelites crossed the Atlantic in 600 BCE. They’re all absurd beliefs, but no more absurd than the articles of faith in any other religion. And faith is faith is faith — I don’t want to debate the merits of faith vs. reason in this post.

However

Romney’s speech is a lie.

He says,

There are some for whom these commitments are not enough. They would prefer it if I would simply distance myself from my religion, say that it is more a tradition than my personal conviction, or disavow one or another of its precepts. That I will not do. I believe in my Mormon faith and I endeavor to live by it. My faith is the faith of my fathers – I will be true to them and to my beliefs.

and later,

Let me assure you that no authorities of my church, or of any other church for that matter, will ever exert influence on presidential decisions. Their authority is theirs, within the province of church affairs, and it ends where the affairs of the nation begin. … I will put no doctrine of any church above the plain duties of the office and the sovereign authority of the law.

(emphasis added)

Some have commented that there’s a natural tension between those two sentiments, but that’s being disingenuous. Those two statements are in direct conflict. We do not live in a caliphate. The laws of man and the laws of God diverge, and they do so with great regularity. In cases where those differences are significant and subject to national debate, where will Romney stand?

Will Romney recognize current US law and uphold a woman’s right to abortion? Or will he work to undermine current law in service of his church and his conscience?

Will Romney work to clarify current law and ensure that, “no State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States?” Or will he work to ensure that those who share his private moral convictions concerning the nature of marriage are granted privileges that others–whose lifestyle and beliefs differ from his–are denied?

Romney wants us to believe that he is a man of strong religious conviction and that he will subordinate that conviction to the sovereign authority of law. But that’s a lie. A servant cannot serve two masters. Either he is a man of great religious conviction who will be guided and informed buy that conviction, or he is not.

If he is a man of conviction, then he should show the courage of his convictions and promise to let his conscience be his guide.

If he is not, then he should not be trusted.

The sad fact is that Mitt Romney believes that he can subordinate his convictions while in office. If we are to believe his current rhetoric, he must have substantially subordinated his beliefs while governor of Massachusetts.

That speaks to a shallow sort of conviction. There may be much to gain form pandering to potential voters, but there is little personal virtue in such plastic principles. Romney seems to have replaced his moral compass with a weather vane. And a man who blows with the wind will find himself lost and broken in a storm.

A candidate’s personal beliefs–his inner convictions about what is good and right and true–are of supreme importance in a presidential election. We are a nation divided on policy and politics. We are a nation at war. We can ill afford a candidate who will be guided only by polls and political expedience. The idea that a candidate’s beliefs are fungible and irrelevant is pernicious. But far worse is the candidate who promises to subordinate his beliefs to the whims of whatever special interest brings him the most votes.

Mitt Romney is a man of faith, but it is not his adherence to his Mormon faith that should doom his candidacy. It is his elevation of expedience over conviction.

The Causes of Terrorism

There’s an interesting article up at The American debunking the myth that affluence reduces terrorism, or that terrorism is a response to poverty.

“The evidence suggests that terrorists care about influencing political outcomes. They are often motivated by geopolitical grievances. To under­stand who joins terrorist organizations, instead of asking who has a low salary and few opportunities, we should ask: Who holds strong political views and is confident enough to try to impose an extrem­ist vision by violent means? Most terrorists are not so desperately poor that they have nothing to live for. Instead, they are people who care so fervently about a cause that they are willing to die for it.”

Krueger, the author of the article, suggests that rather than likening terrorism to crime (where there is a strong correlation with poverty), it is more instructive to liken terrorism to voting and political protest. Krueger’s research suggests that, as with voting and political protest, terrorism is more likely to attract the affluent: those people who can better afford to spend their time committing themselves to abstract political ideals. The author therefore suggests a stronger correlation between political oppression and terrorism than between poverty and terrorism. He argues that relatively wealthy, but heavily oppressive societies–like Saudi Arabia–would tend to generate more terrorists.

That certainly seems plausible to me. I have long wondered if the whole exercise in trying to determine the “root cause” or “root grievance” of terrorism isn’t a little misguided. As Krueger points out, terrorists have diverse motivations. Assuming that terrorism is simply a response to poverty is a project that smacks of simple materialism and has a tendency to obscure issues of moral responsibility and moral agency.

The choice to embrace terrorism is a political choice. It’s the result of accepting a particular ideology, committing wholeheartedly to political and philosophical abstractions and then reifying those abstractions. Terrorism is result of a commitment to dogma, and dogma, as I’ve mentioned before, only thrives where political expression is curtailed.

I know this all sounds a little academic, but this debate matters because it directly affects how we choose to combat terrorism.

If we take the simple materialist stance and imagine terrorism as another version of class struggle, then we’ll be inclined to pursue policies appeasement and wealth transfer. Appeasement because materialism only allows the wealthy the luxury of moral agency, and wealth transfer because redistribution is the only response to the inequities of class. In practical terms, that means offering terrorists gross concessions, like making them part of the government (as in Sierra Leone and Palestine), deliberately ignoring their moral atrocities (as in Rwanda), or conceding to their demands (as in pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan).

But if we take the opposite view, that terrorism is the result of a dogmatic ideology and that the war against terrorism is ultimately ideological–science and reason pitted against fundamentalism and ignorance–then the final battlefield is free public discourse. Dogma withers and dies in light of free inquiry, and free inquiry is only possible in a free society. If we want to win the fight against terrorist dogma, then we must ultimately liberate the people who would be most affected by it.

This is not necessarily to say that America should invade and liberate every oppressive regime in the world, but it is to say that military intervention must remain a valid option in foreign affairs, and it is to say that it should be the avowed policy of US foreign policy to work–through many means–towards the dissolution of oppressive and tyrannical regimes.

Diversity Matters

I’ve been thinking a little bit about diversity lately. Specifically, I’ve been thinking about the value that real diversity can bring to an organization, whether that organization is a school, a magazine, a major corporation, a shoe store, or the U.S. Senate.

We hear about diversity all the time. I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen standard stock phrases that extol a companies commitment to “diversity in the workplace.” Or notices that “Minorities are strongly encouraged to apply!” But racial, sexual, and ethnic diversity is ultimately a pretty shallow kind of diversity. It very rarely makes any difference to me whether my co-worker, boss, senator, plumber or teacher is a straight Catholic Asian man or a gay Hispanic Jewish woman. What usually matters most to me is whether or not the person is competent.

It is true that in some cases, there’s more at stake than mere competence. I certainly want more than a detailed knowledge of parliamentary procedure from my senator, and I’d like my child’s teachers to have a greater commitment to truth than to mandated curricula. In those cases, a person’s basic ideology makes a difference. A conservative senator can be equally as “competent” a law-maker as his liberal colleague, but the laws they enact can be markedly different.

Ideology doesn’t–or shouldn’t–matter in every occupation or circumstance. I don’t care what the ideology of my plumber is, so long as my pipes don’t leak. In fact, I’d be alarmed if I had cause to know my plumber’s religious beliefs. But ideology does matter in some cases. An art teacher committed to representation and life-drawing and an art teacher committed to abstract expressionism, for example, may be equally competent educators, but the effects on their students will be markedly different.

In many cases, access to different ideologies can be enormously beneficial. In an art department it helps to have faculty with different emphases and inclinations. The scientific community benefits enormously when scientists test competing hypotheses. Likewise, a polity benefits from a certain amount of ideological diversity in its politicians. Different ideas and different points of emphasis can help hone arguments, winnow fiction from fact, expand opportunities and helps to prevent tyranny and despotism.

But that’s ideological diversity. The extent to which racial, ethnic and sexual diversity has value is the extent to which race, sex or ethnicity is a determining factor in an individual’s ideology. (And I would think that we’d all hope to see those kinds of correlations diminish over time.) Too often, a commitment to “diversity” is a sham–a commitment to a simple racial/ethnic/sexual diversity can mask hard, ingrained prejudices that serve to keep organizations ideologically homogeneous.

Take for example, the two highly visible struggles that The New Republic has had with false journalism.

I don’t mean to pick on TNR, nor do I mean to pick on their bias, or suggest that a liberal conviction necessarily implies poor judgment or an abandonment of critical thinking skills. There are slavish dogmatists across the political spectrum. But both the Stephen Glass affair and the Scott Thomas Beauchamp debacle point out the dangers of an ideologically homogeneous environment.

In both cases, reporters for TNR fabricated stories that confirmed the ideological bias of the magazine’s editors, staffers, fact-checkers, and owners. In both cases, the factual evidence for the stories was flimsy and largely unsubstantiated. Had TNR committed itself to rigorous fact-checking, the articles in question would have been discarded before they were published. But the articles benefitted from confirmation bias. It’s not that the editors or fact checkers at TNR were dupes or rubes or dishonest, they simply trusted people who told them what they already believed: that soldiers are crass and uncouth, that republicans are boors, that corporations lie, etc….

Whatever commitment TNR makes to “diversity,” they make no significant commitment to ideological diversity. Of course, they’re not alone. The National Review makes no significant commitment to ideological diversity either. And to a certain extent, these magazines exist as participants in a broader collection of opinion magazines, and there is ideological diversity amongst the magazines. In that sense, a dedicated reader can pit the competing positions against each other within the “marketplace of ideas.”

But if a broad spectrum of journalists are biased in the same direction (as many people believe), then the overall debate will become more and more homogeneous over time. And as it relates to journalism, we do seem to see a trend in that direction. The major media coverage of the Duke Rape Case, the Jena 6, and of course scandals like Rathergate all contribute to a growing sense that journalists are increasingly less likely to rigorously check their own assumptions and instead accept the narrative that best fits with the prevailing ideology. Hence statements like, ” the facts were wrong but the narrative was right” or “ fake but accurate.

This problem, unfortunately, is not limited to journalists. Ideological bias and homogeneity is also a growing problem in American education . The faculty at American colleges and universities overwhelmingly self-report as liberal as opposed to conservative. And they do so in such stunning numbers that even some self-described liberals have begun to wonder whether there isn’t some institutional bias against conservative faculty members.

But it’s only a growing problem to those who recognize that some degree of ideological diversity is a net social benefit. To the dogmatists, ideological homogeneity is a sign of virtue and pride–but that way lies folly. In the absence of sustained criticism, people have the tendency to reify their beliefs. When a mass of people begin to think alike, they begin not only to casually dismiss alternative views, but they more easily dismiss the people who hold different beliefs as ignorant, lazy, stupid, or ill intentioned. This is what happens to people who immerse themselves in dogma; they tend to dehumanize nonbelievers. It’s easy to see when the dogmatists are religious fundamentalists, but it can happen with any ideology, from environmentalism to domestic policy, from foreign policy to privacy rights. The idea that your political/social/scientific opposition must actually be morally corrupt simply because they hold differing views is inherently dangerous.

Now, I’m not a relativist. I don’t think that we should tolerate any and all ideological positions, regardless of their merit, simply for the sake of a healthy debate and vigorous ideological criticism. Some ideas are actually wrong and some ideas are actually right. But the point is that we can only really be sure of which ideas are right and which ideas are wrong by examining those ideas in critical detail. And that examination is impossible without some oppositional position.

It is true that while some belief systems and ideologies will wither quickly away, and some others survive far longer than most people would wish. But for a truly pernicious ideology (like Aryan supremacy) to survive requires that large numbers of people get together to reify their absurdities and actively suppress oppositional ideas. The only way to effectively counter genuinely perverse ideas is to bring them into the light, subject them to criticism, and watch them wither and die under scrutiny. Open and honest debate is what drives the scientific quest for truth, and it’s what drives political, social, and spiritual quests for truth as well.

The hallmark of a crippled belief system is an aversion to criticism. Anytime you hear an advocate ridicule his opposition simply for having the temerity to disagree with “accepted” conclusions, you’re hearing the voice of a dogmatist. It makes no difference what side of the aisle the dogmatist is sitting on, nor does it matter how many people the dogmatist can rally behind his banner–or how pretty and exciting the banner might be. Dogmatists can’t stand dissent, criticism, or sunlight. Dogmatists thrive in homogeneity, but they wither in a ideologically heterogeneous society. And they know this, which is why they’re the first to crucify the heathen, the first to crucify the heretic, and the first to try to silence their critics.

The essential answer to dogmatism, of course, is free inquiry and free speech. But in addition to free speech, society requires a certain level of ideological tolerance–a real commitment to real diversity. Many talking heads have bemoaned the current political strife in America: the degree to which political disagreements seem to have “divided” America. To a certain extent I agree. Although the viciousness in political discourse is nothing new, there seems to be an increasing amount of vitriol from the rank and file, and that smacks of dogma. But there is also a sense in which a society with less political division is itself more averse to change and challenge–and more likely to reify it’s worst tendencies. The biggest problem is not that the Democrats and Republicans don’t get along, it’s that they agree on so many issues and conspire to marginalize criticism of institutional flaws (log rolling, pork barreling, corruption, scandal, fiscal irresponsibility, and general sleaziness). It’s bipartisan agreement that’s the real threat.

So let’s bring on the diversity! But let it be meaningful diversity. I don’t really care how many Transsexual African Mormons there on the masthead or on the faculty, but I would like to see more ideological diversity among the reporters at the New York Times and among the faculty at Brandeis University.

Vice President Gore

Now that Al Gore has won the Nobel Peace Prize for starring in a documentary, the net is abuzz with speculation about whether or not Gore will enter the 2008 Presidential race.

He won’t. As many people have pointed out, Hillary Clinton’s lead is unassailable and Gore’s Nobel, while very pretty and very shiny, won’t translate into the kind of money he’d need to run. However….

As I said a while back, I think Gore will be the VP nominee. I don’t think he particularly relishes that role; after all the accolades he’s received this year, playing second fiddle to the Clintons (yet again!) will be a difficult pill to swallow. I also think that Hillary will resist that nomination if only to further differentiate her candidacy from her husband’s presidency. But I do think she’ll offer and that he’ll accept. Since that seems contradictory, let me explain my thinking.

Hillary needs to create a distinction between herself and her husband in the primaries so that she doesn’t lose the progressive vote entirely. There are significant blocs of democrats who still resent Bill’s efforts to move the party to the middle. Hillary will need to stay to the left of her husband to win the primary. But in the general election, Clinton nostalgia (prosperity, relative peace, saxophone solos) will be a positive. Even the sex scandals will be blunted as Hillary can turn those scandals into personal triumphs. Essentially Hillary needs to keep left during the primaries and then suddenly swing back to the middle for the general election. But that swing to the middle could end up angering the progressive left — and it’s the hard left progressives that have given the last two general elections to Bush by jumping ship and voting for Nader. Gore, especially now, could blunt the Nader challenge and convince many of the hard line eco-progressives to vote the ticket. So despite Hillary’s misgivings, Gore offers her something no other candidate can. She gets to stay middle and court nostalgia with a Clinton/Gore 2008 campaign and she gets to stay left and piggy-back on Gore’s progressive credentials (Obama might hold some progressives to the ticket, but would drive more moderates away).

For Gore, it will be a matter of swallowing some pride, biting the bullet, and keeping his focus long-term. Gore could be a huge nightmare for the Democratic party. If Gore wanted to, he could run on the Green Party ticket (maybe with Nader) and guarantee the Dems a loss in 2008. But he can’t win the Dem nomination outright this year (maybe he could, but the fall-out would be so fractious that the party would be left in tatters). Gore can be a spoiler in 2008 if he wants to, but he can’t be president in 2009. However, if Gore swallows his pride, accepts the nomination for VP and runs arm in arm with Hillary, he positions himself to be the no-question Democratic nominee in 2016. Sure, that’s eight years away, but Gore is young; he can wait. The question for Gore is does he want to run for President in 2016, or does he want to run in 2012? If he plays spoiler in 2008, he can run in 2012, but he’ll run against a Republican incumbent. If he signs on with Hillary, he stands a good chance of running in 2016 as a four-term VP.

Of course, I’ve been wrong before….

Choice matters

For those of who don’t know, there’s been something of a ruckus surrounding 12 year-old Graeme Frost, his family’s wealth, subsidized health care, and political viciousness.

I don’t want rehash all the gory details, but you can find a good (if obviously biased) account of the brouhaha here at the Baltimore Sun. For bias in the other direction, see Michelle Malkin, here.

My initial observation is that it’s always in poor taste to use children as political shields. The only reason a political party (either party) would trot out a child to deliver a political address is to use the child as a shield. It’s an appeal to emotion and for that reason alone the practice should be condemned. If your political argument is solid, you don’t need an injured child to help you make it. Political arguments are contentious, that shouldn’t be news to anyone. Political arguments will and should be openly debated, not just as floating abstractions, but as concrete proposals. Consequences matter and the particulars of public policy matter too. If you make an argument for subsidized health care, you shouldn’t be surprised if your political opponents ask questions about means testing. If you use a specific family as an example, don’t be surprised when that family is subjected to scrutiny. If you use a child in an attempt to deflect scrutiny and arouse emotions, you’re an a~~hole. (Note: this isn’t a partisan critique — the Republicans will do this as often as the Democrats. It’s awful and nasty when either side does it. I should also be perfectly clear — personal attacks, if there are any, that are actually directed at a child are completely and utterly inexcusable.)

My second observation is that it’s bad parenting. No parent should ever allow their child to be used as a political shield. It’s a clear example of the insidious danger of ideological zeal. Promoting political abstractions should never matter more to parents than their son’s security and happiness.

But there’s another point, specific to this debate, that needs to be made over and over again: choices have consequences.

Part of why it’s so despicable to use children (especially young children) as political tools is because children don’t yet have a full understanding of how and why trade-offs matter. Children aren’t generally very good at delaying immediate gratification for future reward, they aren’t generally very good at long-term planning, and they aren’t generally very good at developing contingency plans. That’s ok, they’re children. But adults should know better.

Part of being an adult is knowing how to plan and how to prepare for unexpected disaster. It’s an essential part of being a good parent. This is not to say that a parent should be able to predict and account for any and all possible obstacles or disasters that might happen. But it is to say that responsible parents get insurance. A parent who choses to spend money on fast cars, or alcohol, or trips to Disney World rather than on health insurance for his children is an irresponsible parent.

There is no evidence that the Frosts did any of those things. But there is evidence that they chose to invest in commercial real-estate rather than in health insurance. And there is evidence that while at work, they chose personal satisfaction over family security.

Michelle Malkin qoutes Mark Tapscott: “Mark Tapscott’s point remains: “[P]eople make choices and it’s clear the Frosts have made choice to invest in property and a business, but not in private health insurance… .”

That’s a choice. It’s not the same as blowing the money a the race track, or spending it on booze and vacations. But it’s a choice — and it’s a riskier choice than buying insurance. The Frosts took a risk and were tragically unlucky. I don’t want to minimize the awfulness or the tragedy of the accident that wounded their children. Nor do I mean to imply that the accident was in any way the fault of the parents. But we can’t ignore the fact that the Frosts had made choices that were inherently risky, and choices — especially risky ones — have consequences.

Bill Scher writes at the Huffington Post:

“These are the same conservatives that insist that they love tax cuts, not because they are cold and selfish, but because it will unleash the entrepreneurial spirit that makes us Americans. Well, Mr. Frost is an entrepreneur and small business owner. And the tax cuts for the wealthy did not provide him with the financial security to afford health insurance for himself and his family. Nor did it do anything to reduce the cost of health insurance.But the family has been able to get by, despite suffering unexpected medical expenses, in part because we have collectively pooled our resources to provide health insurance for millions of kids.Without SCHIP, the Frosts’ entrepreneurial spirit may well have been crushed, literally and figuratively. This does not concern conservatives.”

Entrepreneurship is great. It really is the engine that drives wealth creation (not just in America, but all over the world). But entrepreneurship is inherently risky. That’s why it can be so rewarding! High risk = high potential reward. If we try to blunt those risks through subsidy, we necessarily blunt the rewards as well. But the point really isn’t about entrepreneurship, it’s about parental responsibility. Parents, as a general rule, should be a little risk-averse. It’s their job because they’re the adults.

Money is fungible. The subsidized insurance that the state provided to the Frosts defrayed the costs of their risky choices. The effect for the Frosts would have been the same had the state subsidized wood working and commercial real-estate investment. The frosts have $160,000 in commercial real estate assets. The insurance subsidy is what enables them to keep that asset (rather than liquidate the asset and purchase health insurance).

The state of Maryland apparently does not check assets when determining eligibility for state subsidy. And that’s the point that bothers people — even people who endorse some plan to help subsidize health insurance for poor families. Without an asset check, we create incentives for people with even greater assets than the Frosts to game the system. Why should I spend money on health insurance when I can invest that money elsewhere and let the taxpayers foot my health insurance bill? The Frosts took a risk, but they took that risk with the taxpayer’s money, and that seems genuinely unjust to a lot of people.

It’s not that the Frosts are especially evil people. I don’t single them out in an effort to discredit the messenger. The message was “more govt. subsidies” and it’s a bad message. That the Frosts happened to be a poor example for that message is unfortunate for them — and especially so for young Graeme. But the blame should fall on the political machine that held the child up as an example and then used him as a shield.

Doesn’t anybody take economics anymore?

From an AP story:

“Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that every child born in the United States should get a $5,000 “baby bond” from the government to help pay for future costs of college or buying a home.

‘I like the idea of giving every baby born in America a $5,000 account that will grow over time, so that when that young person turns 18 if they have finished high school they will be able to access it to go to college or maybe they will be able to make that downpayment on their first home,’ she said.”

Why not a tax cut? Or even tax credit? Or a simple voucher? Or why not just… write a check?

Why create yet another government bureaucracy to waste money administering what could be an incredibly simple benefit?

WHY????

It’s absolutely amazing to me.

And a BOND, no less. Let’s rewrite the headline…

“Clinton suggests saddling every child born in America with a $5,000 debt obligation at birth.”

Doesn’t sound so nice that way….

Lest we forget, if it’s a bond, it’s a debt that we repay through taxes. Giving everyone $5,000 is exactly the same as doing nothing but raising everyone’s taxes to pay the interest and manage the administrative costs of the program. She’s proposing a bond because that way she can write the cost of her gift to our children off on our grandchildren. Although I’m sure she’s thinking of “bond” in the way that Social Security is a “bond.” You know, in the way that it’s not a bond at all.

Anybody want to guess what the performance of the government managed account will be? Anyone? Compared to private investment? Anyone?

Predictions…

I’ve been half-heartedly following the presidential primary races, and I’m feeling pretty bored. Sure, there have been some scandals on both sides of the aisle, but really… I find it hard to care. Probably because I can’t find a single candidate that I really like.

My problem is that I’m not a single issue voter. I’m passionate about political issues. But for me, there is no single overriding issue that makes or breaks a candidate.

I’m a radical nut-case whack-job Objectivist. I don’t ever expect to find a candidate I like.

But I’ll still offer my predictions!

The Republican nomination is still up for grabs. Thompson is making headway, and Guiliani has lasted longer than I thought he would. McCain and Romney are still plugging away. But Romney is a Mormon and, well, eventually that will cost him in the national polls; you can’t hide your special underwear forever. McCain angered the GOP too many times, and the party won’t forget it. Guiliani is pro-choice, no he’s pro-life, wait, who’s he talking to? There’s that picture of him in drag, the ugly divorce, his daughter won’t vote for him… and he’s kind of pro-gun control too…. no chance for the nomination. He might be a Republican in New York, but in Mississippi, he’s just a damn liberal Yankee. That gives the nod to Thompson, the folksy Reagan. (Yes, Thompson is divorced, but his ex wife AND her new husband contributed money to Thompson’s campaign. It’s a brave new world in divorced families, something I’ll talk about too at some point.) Thompson will need some street cred to win the general election, so I think he’ll pick Gingrich as his running mate. Okay — I can hear the laughter. “Gingrich?” you say. “P’shaw!” (Who says p’shaw? What are you, some kind of weirdo?) But trust me. Powell won’t take the offer, Rice is political suicide, Romney will have spent the last of his political capital…. Just watch. Although Guiliani will be tempting as he brings the (false) hope of actually winning in New York state.

Hillary will get the Democratic nomination. (Obama just isn’t a serious challenger. You don’t win elections by saying you want to bomb our allies. Or have tea with whichever Castro is strangling Cuba. Or repeatedly hang your party out to dry as you try to score points with their radical wing.) Edwards is a non-starter. Sure, he has nice hair, but what else is there? He’s like the worst of the other two: Obama’s brain with Hillary’s charisma. And Hillary will pick… (drum roll, please)… Al Gore to be her running mate. Remember, you saw it here first! Their theme song will be Lennon’s “Yesterday.” But seriously, Gore is the perfect pick for her. He gives her charisma (I know, I know… can you believe that we’ve come to a point in american politics where Al “Robot-Man” Gore is what passes for charisma?), and he may be enough to keep Nader from affecting the election too much.

Clinton/Gore vs. Thompson/Gingrich (or Thompson/Guiliani)

Much will depend on Hillary. If she can overcome her negatives, she’ll have a shot. Thompson will rely on progress in Iraq to blunt Hillary’s momentum with moderates. Plus, you know, he’s all folksy.

The results will be too close to call on election night and Gore will find himself in the middle of another contested election.